Market

Overview

Lithium is crucial to much of the modern world and, in particular, industries and technologies related to sustainable energy. Lithium is another key element in the infrastructure and technology of the world of tomorrow. With a range of target markets covering everything from personal electronics to transportation, to large-scale energy storage and distribution projects, lithium is a key asset with almost limitless usage scenarios.

Market Data

The EU has raised an alarm on critical raw material shortages as it estimates that, in order to meet its Climate Neutrality goal, demand for lithium may increase by 1800% and cobalt by 500% by 2030. If this timeline is extended to 2050 then the increases rise to 6000% and 1500% respectively (Reuters).
On Ford’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Jim Farley said, “we’re selling them [EVs] as fast as we can make them.” The company plans to achieve a run rate of 600,000 EVs by the end of next year and 2 million in 2026 (Ford).

Based on the assumption that EVs will make up around 40% of new passenger car sales by 2030, Wood Mackenzie predicts that nearly 800 kt LCE of additional lithium would need to come online in the next five years to meet future demand (Mackenzie).

  • Annual lithium demand is projected to reach roughly 1.5 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2025 and over 3 million tons by 2030. This 2025 forecast calls for triple the demand seen in 2021 (Global X).
  • EVs could account for about 84% of total lithium demand in 2030, up from about 55% in 2021 (Global X).
  • LG Chem has plans to spin off its battery business into a separate enterprise as the growth of the EV market continues. (The Guardian)
  • BMI’s Simon Moores remarks that they now have 167 “Megafactories” in the pipeline to 2028 that will yield a cumulative capacity of 2,697 GWh.

“There is no doubt that regardless of how well Tesla’s vehicles continue to sell, raw material availability will be the primary slowing factor on the company scaling”. – BMI, Moores

  • Global Battery Metals Market to hit sales of $25.66 billion by 2028, Lithium generates over 30% revenue of the market (Sky Quest).